Domestic markets are likely to open on a flattish to negative note on Thursday, which will also see settlement of monthly contracts on the NSE. Gift Nifty at 23,500 signals marginal loss at open for Nifty. Global stocks present negative cues, as most equities across the Asia-Pacific region are down by around 0.50 per cent amid tariff talks by the US President Trump. As March contracts at the NSE will expire today, analysts expect select stocks and sectors will see heightened volatility.
Despite buying by foreign portfolio investors, sentiment remains downbeat due to global uncertainties. The mid and small-cap space will see profit-booking, said analysts.
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US President Donald Trump on Wednesday announced sweeping plans to impose a 25 per cent tariff on all automobiles imported into the US, declaring that the measure will be permanent. The tariffs will take effect on April 2, with collection beginning on April 3. “Uncertainty over US tariffs was a major concern, as investors remained cautious ahead of President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements scheduled for April 2, which could impact Indian exports, particularly in the IT and pharmaceutical sectors,” said Vaibhav Vidwani, Research Analyst at Bonanza
According to analysts, the market will remain volatile due to global sentiment with lack of domestic cues.
Emkay Global Research, in a midweek strategy report, said the Nifty recovered smartly from the lows of 21,964 (4 March 2025) after valuations touched rock-bottom. FPI flows have started to reverse. “Focus now shifts to the reciprocal tax announcement next week, which we think will be low-impact, but could hurt valuations in the short term. In the longer term, the sustainability of market momentum depends on earnings forecast for FY26 (14% Nifty EPSg) holding up through the April-25 earnings season,” it added.
However, derivatives signal a neutral trend.
Hardik Matalia, Derivatives Analyst, Choice Broking, said: The India VIX declined by 1.21 per cent to 13.4700, indicating a drop in market volatility and improved investor sentiment. This suggests reduced uncertainty, with traders showing more confidence in market stability, he said, adding that Open Interest (OI) data shows the highest OI on the call side at the 23,600 and 23,700 strike prices, highlighting strong resistance levels. On the put side, OI is concentrated at the 23,300 strike price, marking it as a key support level.