In a video interview with Pharma Commerce, Murray Aitken, executive director of the IQVIA Institute for Human Data Science, explains the extensive process behind developing the “Global Use of Medicines Outlook Through 2029” report. The creation of this comprehensive resource spans several months and integrates proprietary IQVIA datasets, including the MIDAS (Market Intelligence Data Analytics Solution), market prognosis, and forecast link tools. The report combines robust data analytics with global expert insights to produce a holistic view of the pharmaceutical landscape.
Aitken emphasizes that a key part of the process involves gathering input from IQVIA’s network of experts across the world, each bringing localized perspectives on evolving trends in medicine use, access, and policy. These expert insights are then synthesized by an internal analytics team responsible for compiling the vast volume and value data.
In terms of metrics, the report estimates that 3.6 trillion defined daily doses of medicines were consumed globally in the past year. Additionally, the worldwide expenditure on medicines is projected to be approximately $1.8 trillion at list prices in 2024. Aitken notes that while there are some data gaps, IQVIA’s methodology includes filling in missing information using statistically sound models and expert validation.
The ultimate goal of the report is to provide all healthcare stakeholders—governments, policy makers, pharma executives, and researchers—with a clear, data-driven understanding of where medicines are being used, how frequently, and at what cost. Aitken concludes by expressing pride in his team’s efforts and the value the report brings in shaping discussions around global health policy, drug affordability, and resource allocation.
He also comments on how pharma companies should revise their market access and pricing models to align with the evolving landscape; strategies manufacturers should adopt to balance investment in innovation with lifecycle management in order to maintain sustainable growth; how the competitive landscape will evolve within these high-impact therapeutic areas, the role patient access and reimbursement play in shaping adoption; what he anticipates for the biosimilar adoption curve in key markets over the next five years; and much more.
A transcript of his conversation with PC can be found below.
PC: The report reveals a shift from volume-driven to mix-driven spending, including a move toward more expensive, higher‑value therapies across regions. How should pharma companies revise their market access and pricing models to align with this evolving landscape?
Aitken: One of the things that we see happening in the global market is the increased use of the 1,000 new drugs that have been launched over the last 20 years. We still have a lot of medicines older than 20 years that are driving volume, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, but also in high-income countries to some extent, but it’s that 1,000 novel active substances that have been launched over the last 20 years that are driving a lot of the growth, which is where we see this shift in the mix of drugs being used.
What that means for manufacturers, is that it’s a much more competitive environment than it was five, 10, or 20 years ago. There’re a lot of other novel drugs out there, so that all comes back to the quality of the clinical evidence, the real-world evidence about the safety and efficacy of the drugs, not only on average for all patients, but for some populations of patients.
Generating that evidence is critically important, and then educating and communicating with healthcare professionals becomes a much more focused and tailored effort than it used to be because of this level of competition. This is where we see digital and AI being incorporated to really be very precise about the messaging that gets delivered to specific healthcare professionals at specific times of the day and in certain settings, so I think these are really driving shift towards better medicines for more patients.