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When society thinks back to the year 2020, many may associate it with the year in which the world forever changed, as March marked the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. It is also well known that a plethora of industries experienced disruptions as a result, including in the area of cancer prevention and care.
Of course, there were also other factors that impacted disruptions to this sector, such as armed conflicts, healthcare funding, and changes to the cost of living. Between the 2020 and 2022 timeframe alone, the global Human Development Index (HDI)—which measures human development indicators including life expectancy, education, and gross national income per capita—declined substantially for two straight years,1 a matter that could significantly impact cancer care in specific regions. This is based on various sociodemographic characteristics.
Keeping this mind, a cross-sectional study published in JAMA Network Open2 sought to assess cancer outcome equity by examining the global disparities in cancer burden according to cancer type, HDI, sex, age, regions, and countries/territories in 2022, while projecting these patterns could potentially change by 2050.
Population-based cancer data were gathered from GLOBOCAN 2022, a source that collects publicly available global cancer-related data. It included 36 cancer types, and as mentioned previously, the was classified by sex, age, country or territory, region, and HDI. The age groups were as follows 0 to 19; 20 to 39; 40 to 64; 65 to 74; and 75 years or older, while countries and territories were assigned to six potential regions: Africa; Asia; Europe; Latin America and the Caribbean; North America; and Oceania. In total, this consisted of 185 countries and territories, with both the data extraction and analysis occurring in April 2024.
By 2050, 35.3 million cancer cases expected worldwide, which is a 76.6% increase over the 2022 estimate of 20 million. Also, 18.5 million cancer deaths are estimated by 2050, an 89.7% increase from the 9.7 million estimate back in 2022. Cancer cases and deaths are projected to almost triple in low-HDI countries by 2050, while experiencing a “moderate” increase in very high–HDI countries (142.1% vs 41.7% for cancer cases. 146.1% vs 56.8% for cancer deaths).
When divided up by sex, males reportedly had a higher rate of deaths in 2022 than females. In fact, that difference is predicted to increase by as much as 16.0% by 2050. As for the mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR), in 2022, it was 46.6%, while higher MIRs were detected for pancreatic cancer overall (89.4%).
It’s important to note that this study did present its share of limitations, including the quality of the GLOBOCAN data—it’s possible that there were disruptions to the cancer surveillance due to COVID, which could have affected estimates.
However, the study investigators concluded that, “Strengthening health care access and quality, including universal health insurance coverage, and health care systems in the prevention, early diagnosis, management, and treatment of cancer will be paramount for improving clinical outcomes and slowing projected trends.”
References
1. Human Development Report 2021-22: Uncertain Times, Unsettled Lives: Shaping Our Future in a Transforming World. United Nations Development Programme. September 8, 2022. Accessed March 10, 2024. https://hdr.undp.org/system/files/documents/global-report-document/hdr2021-22reportenglish_0.pdf
2. Bizuayehu HM, Ahmed KY, Kibret GD, et al. Global Disparities of Cancer and Its Projected Burden in 2050. JAMA Netw Open. 2024;7(11):e2443198. doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.43198