The U.K.’s central bank warned Thursday of “heightened uncertainty” as it kept interest rates on hold after inflation moved further above target, even at a time when the British economy is flatlining at best.
The Bank of England’s nine-member Monetary Policy Committee kept its main interest rate unchanged at 4.75% with new data showing inflation rising to 2.6%, further above the bank’s 2% target.
In response the rate-setting panel, which last cut its key rate in November, is taking a cautious stance because lower borrowing costs could potentially stoke inflation even further.
The decision was widely anticipated in financial markets yet surprisingly, as many as three of the members voted for a quarter-point cut. That could hint at a further reduction at the next policy meeting in February if there are no big inflation surprises.
“We need to make sure we meet the 2% inflation target on a sustained basis,” said Bank Gov. Andrew Bailey, who voted to keep rates on hold. “We think a gradual approach to future interest rate cuts remains right, but with the heightened uncertainty in the economy we can’t commit to when or by how much we will cut rates in the coming year.”
Struggling sectors in the U.K. economy and homeowners are hoping for more cuts next year that would provide some relief. The British economy has now contracted for two months in a row.
“The bank’s decision to keep interest rates on hold, while expected, will still come as a palpable blow to households battling with burdensome mortgage bills and businesses facing a jump in costs following the autumn budget,” said Suren Thiru, economics director at the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales.
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The bank’s decision arrives a day after the U.S. Federal Reserve reduced interest rates, but Chair Jerome Powell signaled that the Fed would be slowing the pace of rate cuts going forward after inflation forecasts were revised higher.
The minutes to the Bank of England’s decision shows that rate-setters cautioned over the economic outlook in the wake of the new Labour government’s first budget and the outcome of the U.S. presidential election.
Critics argue that the budget in October has both elevated inflation pressures while also damping growth. A big increase in business taxes may prompt companies to offset higher costs by raising prices or cutting down on hiring. The government argues that it needed to raise taxes to shore up public finances and inject money into cash-starved public services.
And with Donald Trump returning to the White House in January, there’s uncertainty as to whether the incoming U.S. administration will impose tariffs on imports, an economic strategy that could lead to a tit-for-tat response that stokes inflation and lowers growth.
Still, inflation in the U.K. and across the world is far lower than it was a couple of years ago, partly because central banks dramatically increased borrowing costs from near zero during the coronavirus pandemic when prices started to shoot up, first as a result of supply chain issues and then because of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine which pushed up energy costs.
As inflation rates have fallen from multidecade highs, the central banks have started cutting interest rates, though few, if any, economists think that rates will fall back to the super-low levels that persisted in the years after the global financial crisis of 2008-2009.
© 2024 The Canadian Press