Inflation in the United States ticked up in October, driven by costlier rents, used cars and airfares, a sign that price increases might be levelling off after having slowed in September to their lowest pace since 2021.
Consumer prices rose 2.6 per cent from a year earlier, the Labor Department said Wednesday, up from 2.4 per cent in September. It was the first rise in annual inflation in seven months. From September to October, prices edged up 0.2 per cent, the same as the previous month. Excluding volatile food and energy costs, “core” prices rose 3.3 per cent from a year earlier, the same as in September. From September to October, core prices rose 0.3 per cent for a third straight month. Over the long run, core inflation at that pace would exceed the Fed’s two per cent target.
An uptick in prices, if sustained, could stir concerns in financial markets that progress in taming inflation may be slowing. It might also make the Federal Reserve less inclined to cut its key interest rate in the coming months, as its officials have previously indicated they likely would.
Still, most economists think inflation will eventually resume its slowdown. Consumer inflation, which peaked at 9.1 per cent in 2022, has since fallen steadily, though overall prices are still about 20 per cent higher than they were three years ago.
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The price spike soured Americans on the economy and the Biden-Harris administration’s economic stewardship and contributed to Vice-President Kamala Harris’s loss in last week’s presidential election.
Yet Donald Trump’s victory has raised considerable uncertainty about where inflation might be headed and how the Fed would react if it reaccelerated. Trump has vowed to reduce inflation, mostly by ramping up oil and gas drilling. But mainstream economists have warned that some of his proposals, notably his plan to substantially increase tariffs on imports and pursue mass deportations of migrants, would worsen inflation if fully implemented.
Stock prices surged in the wake of Trump’s election victory, mostly on optimism that his proposed tax cuts and deregulation would boost the economy and corporate profits. But bond yields also jumped, likely reflecting fear that inflation could accelerate.
In addition, the economy is growing faster than many economists had expected earlier this year. It has expanded at nearly a three per cent annual rate over the past six months, with consumers, particularly those with higher incomes, spending freely and fuelling growth.
At a news conference last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell expressed confidence that inflation is still heading down to the central bank’s two per cent target, though perhaps slowly and unevenly.
Powell also noted that most sources of price pressures are cooling, suggesting that inflation isn’t likely to accelerate in the coming months. Wages are still growing and have outpaced prices for the past year and a half. But Powell noted that wages aren’t rising quickly enough to boost inflation.
A survey released Tuesday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found that consumers expect prices to rise just 2.9 per cent in the next 12 months, which would be the lowest such measure in nearly four years. Lower inflation expectations are important because when consumers expect milder price increases, they’re less likely to act in ways that raise inflation, such as accelerating their purchases or demanding higher pay to offset higher prices.
Another potential source of relief for Americans’ budgets is in apartment rents. They are now barely rising on average nationwide, according to the real estate brokerage Redfin. Its measure of median rent was just 0.2 per cent higher than it was a year ago in October, at $1,619, though that figure reflects rents only for new leases.
The government’s measurement of rents is rising faster because it includes existing rents. Many landlords are still raising monthly payments to reflect higher costs for new leases over the past three years.
© 2024 The Canadian Press